The Big 12 championship race has settled into a clearer picture heading into the final weeks of the 2024 season.
No. 6 Texas Tech, No. 12 BYU and No. 25 Cincinnati each carry just one conference loss. Two of these teams will likely meet in the Big 12 championship game on Dec. 6 at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.
No. 13 Utah, Houston and Arizona State sit with two conference losses. That leaves room for chaos in the final three weeks.
How this shakes out determines whether the Big 12 gets one or two College Football Playoff berths.
Big 12 football standings 2024
Six teams enter Week 12 with two conference losses or fewer:
| SCHOOL | OVERALL | BIG 12 | PF | PA | WEEK 12 |
| Texas Tech | 9-1 | 6-1 | 421 | 126 | vs. UCF |
| BYU | 8-1 | 5-1 | 297 | 165 | vs. TCU |
| Cincinnati | 7-2 | 5-1 | 320 | 197 | vs. Arizona |
| Houston | 8-2 | 5-2 | 295 | 221 | Bye |
| Utah | 7-2 | 4-2 | 356 | 128 | at Baylor |
| Arizona State | 6-3 | 4-2 | 222 | 213 | vs. West Virginia |
Big 12 tiebreaker rules for 2024
The Big 12 uses six tiebreakers in order until the tie breaks:
Step 1: Head-to-head competition among the teams.
Step 2: Win percentage against all common conference opponents among the tied teams.
Step 3: Win percentage against the next highest placed common opponent in the standings, proceeding through the standings.
Step 4: Combined win percentage in conference games of conference opponents, or strength-of-conference schedule.
Step 5: Total number of wins in a 12-game season.
Step 6: Highest ranking by SportSource Analytics following the last weekend of regular-season games.
Step 7: Coin toss.
Big 12 contenders path to the championship game
Texas Tech (9-1, 6-1)
Remaining schedule: vs. UCF, at West Virginia
Texas Tech controls its destiny in the Big 12. The Red Raiders hold head-to-head victories against BYU, Utah and Houston.
If they lose, Texas Tech would need Cincinnati to beat BYU on Nov. 22. Utah has a stronger cumulative conference winning percentage. Arizona State beat Texas Tech 26-22 on Oct. 18.
BYU (8-1, 5-1)
Remaining schedule: vs. TCU, at Cincinnati, vs. UCF
The Cougars control their destiny. The key game comes Nov. 22 at Cincinnati.
That could pit two teams with one conference loss each. The winner positions themselves for the championship game.
BYU beat Utah 24-21, but the Utes have better conference opponents’ cumulative winning percentage. That hurts BYU’s chances in a multi-team tiebreaker scenario.
Cincinnati (7-2, 5-1)
Remaining schedule: vs. Arizona, vs. BYU, at TCU
The Bearcats control their destiny with their next two games at home against Arizona and BYU.
Cincinnati still has a path if they lose to BYU. It requires the Cougars to drop a second conference game and a third Big 12 team to finish 7-2 in conference play.
Houston (8-2, 5-2)
Remaining schedule: vs. TCU, at Baylor
Houston’s bye week keeps them alive for another week. The Cougars need Big 12 chaos.
Utah and Arizona State need one loss each. Cincinnati and BYU likely need two losses each. Houston’s opponents have the worst cumulative conference winning percentage. Despite beating Arizona State 24-16 on Oct. 25, the Cougars face long odds.
Utah (7-2, 4-2)
Remaining schedule: at Baylor, vs. Kansas State, at Kansas
Head-to-head losses to Texas Tech and BYU hurt but aren’t dealbreakers. The Utes need to win out.
The easiest path involves two BYU losses and another Cincinnati loss. Utah routed Cincinnati 45-14. The Utes have the strongest cumulative conference winning percentage in a two-loss pileup.
Arizona State (6-3, 4-2)
Remaining schedule: vs. West Virginia, at Colorado, vs. Arizona
Arizona State is the chaos team. The Sun Devils need Texas Tech to lose again to capitalize on their head-to-head victory.
Cincinnati needs to lose two of three games. Utah needs one loss. A three-way tie with Texas Tech and BYU also favors the Sun Devils.
Big 12 common opponents tracker for 2024
Here’s how the contenders stack up against common opponents, including cumulative conference winning percentage:
| OPPONENT | TTECH | BYU | CIN | HOU | UTAH | ASU |
| Arizona | – | 33-27 | Nov. 15 | W 31-28 | – | Nov. 28 |
| Arizona State | L 26-22 | – | – | W 24-16 | W 42-10 | – |
| Baylor | – | – | W 41-20 | Nov. 29 | Nov. 15 | W 27-24 |
| BYU | W 29-7 | – | Nov. 22 | – | L 24-21 | – |
| Cincinnati | – | Nov. 22 | – | – | W 45-14 | – |
| Colorado | – | W 24-21 | – | W 36-20 | W 53-7 | Nov. 22 |
| Houston | W 35-11 | – | – | – | – | L 24-16 |
| Iowa State | – | W 41-27 | W 38-30 | – | – | W 24-19 |
| Kansas | W 42-17 | – | W 37-34 | – | Nov. 28 | – |
| Kansas State | W 43-20 | – | – | – | Nov. 22 | – |
| Oklahoma State | W 42-0 | – | W 49-17 | W 39-17 | – | – |
| TCU | – | Nov. 15 | Nov. 29 | Nov. 22 | – | W 27-24 |
| Texas Tech | – | L 29-7 | – | L 35-11 | L 34-10 | W 26-22 |
| UCF | Nov. 15 | Nov. 29 | W 20-11 | W 30-27 | – | – |
| Utah | W 34-10 | W 24-21 | L 45-14 | – | – | L 42-10 |
| West Virginia | Nov. 29 | W 38-24 | – | L 45-35 | W 48-14 | Nov. 15 |
| CUMULATIVE | 27-30 | 28-30 | 25-31 | 23-34 | 31-27 | 30-28 |
Most likely Big 12 championship game scenario
Multiple scenarios remain possible. They can be calculated here.
Texas Tech appears most likely to reach the Big 12 championship game. The Red Raiders lost their only conference game when quarterback Behren Morton was out. They’re heavy favorites against UCF before facing West Virginia on Nov. 29.
The winner of BYU-Cincinnati becomes the most likely opponent.
Keep watching Utah down the stretch. The Utes lost head-to-head to BYU and Texas Tech but beat Cincinnati.
The winner of the Cincinnati-BYU matchup will likely face Texas Tech in the championship game. It requires that team to go 3-0 in their remaining games. Both teams face TCU, but BYU gets the Horned Frogs at home.
That’s a slight advantage for the Cougars.
