The Michigan Wolverines are just three years removed from winning a national championship. Now, head coach Kyle Whittingham will attempt to lead the program back to national relevance with sophomore quarterback Bryce Underwood under center.
The Wolverines have a clear path to the College Football Playoff this season. Their schedule includes marquee matchups against Ohio State and Oklahoma in rematches from last year’s games.
Michigan also faces several teams with major question marks, including Minnesota and Rutgers.
But according to CBS Sports’ Brad Crawford, one home game could present unexpected problems for the Wolverines. He identifies UCLA as a potential trap game that Michigan will likely be favored to win.
“UCLA may not carry the same national profile, but Bob Chesney’s teams play with discipline, toughness and confidence. Michigan should have the talent advantage at home, but a sluggish start could create problems. If the Wolverines are still feeling the effects of that trip to Eugene, UCLA could turn what looks like a breather into a four-quarter fight with postseason implications.”
Crawford’s concerns center on timing and momentum. The UCLA game comes at a point in the season where Michigan could be dealing with the physical and mental effects of a grueling Big Ten schedule.
ESPN’s Heather Dinich believes a Wolverines postseason berth may be easier said than done despite the program’s recent success.
“ESPN’s FPI gives Michigan more than a 50% chance to win every game — except for the Big Three (Oregon, Ohio State and Indiana). If Michigan can beat Oklahoma and Iowa — and they’re both top-25 teams — and the Wolverines pull off at least one upset against the Big Three, a two-loss Michigan would be a good bet for the CFP.”
Dinich’s analysis suggests Michigan needs to handle business against expected wins while pulling off at least one signature victory.
The math becomes more complicated if Michigan finishes 9-3. Dinich notes the College Football Playoff Committee would evaluate how those three losses occurred and against which opponents.
“The committee would consider how close the losses were — what if they were in overtime, by a field goal, and by a touchdown? — but Michigan would still be compared with other teams that have fewer losses and more wins against ranked opponents.”
The context of losses matters significantly in playoff selection. Close defeats to highly ranked teams carry more weight than blowout losses or upset defeats to unranked opponents.
Michigan’s path requires navigating one of college football’s most competitive conferences. The Big Ten features multiple playoff contenders this season.
The Wolverines’ season hinges on Underwood’s development and the team’s ability to avoid letdown games like the potential UCLA matchup Crawford highlighted.
