Clemson sits at No. 10 in ESPN’s preseason SP+ rankings, five spots below their fifth-place position in the AP Poll.
The Tigers earned their top-five AP ranking as ACC favorites this season. But ESPN’s Bill Connelly believes that ranking might be too generous based on his predictive metrics.
SP+ measures college football efficiency while adjusting for tempo and opponent strength. The system focuses on sustainable and predictable aspects of football rather than resume or poll positioning.
“Clemson is projected to improve rather significantly this season,” Connelly said. “But since the Tigers have averaged only an SP+ ranking of 18.5 over the past four seasons — and needed major turnovers luck to win the ACC last year — major improvement simply brings them into the top 10.”
The Tigers have struggled to maintain their championship-level performance in recent years. They’ve finished outside the top 15 in SP+ rankings multiple times since their last national title run.
Connelly pointed to 2025 as a crucial year for Dabo Swinney. The Clemson coach hasn’t built a title-winning roster in seven years, making this season a test of whether he can return to that level.
The No. 10 SP+ ranking still leads the ACC by several spots. It also keeps Clemson firmly in contender status despite the gap between the two rankings systems.
The difference highlights how predictive metrics can view teams differently than traditional polls. SP+ emphasizes efficiency and sustainability over reputation and preseason expectations.
