The College Football Playoff tweaks its 12-team format again this season with a few key changes.
Four Power 4 conference champions from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC earn automatic bids. The highest-ranked Group of 6 school gets an automatic spot too.
Notre Dame qualifies if the Irish finish in the top 12 rankings.
The format keeps straight seeding with the top four schools earning byes. The SEC and Big Ten dominated the field over the last two years, and that trend should continue in 2026-27.
Our predictions include four Big Ten teams and four SEC teams. We also expect Notre Dame to return after getting snubbed last season.
We correctly predicted five of the 12 teams last season. Four of those teams make our CFP field again this year.
First-round playoff games tip off Dec. 18-19. The quarterfinals begin at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl on Dec. 30, followed by a Jan. 1 triple-header featuring the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic, Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential and Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl.
The semifinals happen at the Capital One Orange Bowl and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Jan. 14-15.
The College Football Playoff championship game is set for Jan. 25 at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.
College Football Playoff first-round predictions
The four first-round matchups will be played on campus sites:
| DATE | BOWL | MATCHUP |
| Dec. 18 | First-Round CFP game | No. 10 USC vs. No. 7 Miami |
| Dec. 19 | First-Round CFP game | No. 5 Texas vs. No. 12 Boise State |
| Dec. 19 | First-Round CFP game | No. 8 Ole Miss vs. No. 9 Oklahoma |
| Dec. 19 | First-Round CFP game | No. 6 Oregon vs. No. 11 BYU |
First round (Dec. 18): No. 10 USC at No. 7 Miami
USC makes its first CFP appearance under Lincoln Riley after navigating a tough schedule. Miami returns to the playoff after reaching the championship game as an at-large last season – this time as the ACC champion.
These schools haven’t met since 1968, creating an intriguing primetime matchup.
First round (Dec. 19): No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Texas
Boise State becomes the team that gets the Pac-12 back into the College Football Playoff. Spencer Danielson led the Broncos to Mountain West Conference titles in each of the last three seasons.
This marks Arch Manning’s College Football Playoff debut as Texas’s starting quarterback.
First round (Dec. 19): No. 9 Oklahoma at No. 8 Ole Miss
The Sooners face another league opponent in the first round for the second straight season. The Rebels host Oklahoma on Nov. 14 in the regular season, setting up a rematch scenario.
The quarterback battle between John Mateer and Trinidad Chambliss should be compelling. They combined for 75 pass attempts in a 34-26 shootout last season.
First round (Dec. 19): No. 11 BYU at No. 6 Oregon
Oregon gets the late game slot for the second consecutive season against Big 12 champion BYU. Coach Kalani Sitake leads the Cougars to their conference title breakthrough.
The Ducks beat BYU 41-20 in their last meeting at Autzen Stadium in 2022. Dan Lanning has a chance to push Oregon to the quarterfinals for the third straight year since joining the Big Ten.
College Football Playoff quarterfinal predictions
The quarterfinal games move to traditional New Year’s Six bowl sites:
| DATE | BOWL | MATCHUP |
| Dec. 30 | Vrbo Fiesta Bowl | No. 4 Ohio State vs. No. 5 Texas |
| Jan. 1 | Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic | No. 3 Notre Dame vs. No. 6 Oregon |
| Jan. 1 | Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential | No. 1 Indiana vs. No. 8 Ole Miss |
| Jan. 1 | Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl | No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 10 USC |
Vrbo Fiesta Bowl (Dec. 30): No. 4 Ohio State vs. No. 5 Texas
This creates the fourth meeting between these schools in three years. The Buckeyes and Longhorns meet Sept. 12 in the second half of their home-and-home series.
Ohio State has won three of five all-time meetings. Three of those games were decided by seven points or fewer.
Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic (Jan. 1): No. 3 Notre Dame vs. No. 6 Oregon
Dan Lanning and Notre Dame coach Marcus Freeman rank as the top two coaches without national championships in our coaching rankings. Quarterbacks CJ Carr and Dante Moore add star power to this Cotton Bowl matchup.
Both teams return key defensive players from units that ranked 11th and 12th in scoring defense last season.
Rose Bowl Game (Jan. 1): No. 1 Indiana vs. No. 8 Ole Miss
The Hoosiers return to the Rose Bowl under Curt Cignetti with Ole Miss making its first appearance in “The Granddaddy of Them All.”
TCU transfer Josh Hoover leads an Indiana roster mixing portal additions with experience from last season’s national championship team. Could Chambliss engineer an upset to push the Rebels to consecutive semifinals?
Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl (Jan. 1): No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 10 USC
Georgia enters 0-2 in quarterfinal games under the 12-team format. Kirby Smart gets a close-to-home opportunity to fix that record at the Peach Bowl.
USC would make a second straight East Coast trip. These schools have met just three times – all in Los Angeles in 1931, 1933 and 1960.
College Football Playoff semifinal predictions
The semifinal matchups take shape at traditional bowl sites:
| DATE | BOWL | MATCHUP |
| Jan. 14 | Capital One Orange Bowl | No. 1 Indiana vs. No. 5 Texas |
| Jan. 15 | Allstate Sugar Bowl | No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 3 Notre Dame |
Capital One Orange Bowl (Jan. 14): No. 1 Indiana vs. No. 5 Texas
Texas would need to beat both Ohio State and Indiana in consecutive weeks to reach the championship game. That would represent a major achievement for coach Steve Sarkisian, putting the Longhorns in CFP semifinals for the third time in four years.
This marks a crucial season for the Texas program.
Allstate Sugar Bowl (Jan. 15): No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 3 Notre Dame
Notre Dame beat Georgia 23-10 in the Sugar Bowl on Jan. 2, 2025, with Gunner Stockton making an emergency start for the Bulldogs.
Stockton would get his chance for revenge in the third Sugar Bowl meeting between these schools.
College Football Playoff championship pick
The championship game heads to Las Vegas on Jan. 25:
| DATE | BOWL | MATCHUP |
| Jan. 25 | CFP National Championship | No. 1 Indiana vs. No. 3 Notre Dame |
CFP national championship (Jan. 25): No. 1 Indiana vs. No. 3 Notre Dame
An all-Indiana championship game would create statewide hysteria. Notre Dame seeks its first national title since 1988.
The Irish won the most recent playoff meeting 27-17 on Dec. 20, 2024.
Could the Hoosiers deliver a fourth consecutive national championship for the Big Ten?
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