The debate over paying college football players raged for years. Most people opposed the idea, believing it would destroy the amateur nature of the sport.
NIL and the transfer portal changed everything. Players now leave programs more frequently than ever. Money influences decisions in ways we’ve never seen before. Programs with deep pockets are beating programs with winning traditions.
Some fans think this has ruined college football.
But different doesn’t always mean worse. The new landscape will actually improve the overall product. It creates opportunities for programs beyond the same 5-8 blue blood schools to compete for championships. College football is evolving into something closer to a professional league.
The introduction of player payments brought expected challenges. But a college football version of players becoming ‘institutionalized’ wasn’t on anyone’s radar.
Top players are rethinking the jump to the NFL
When NIL launched, nobody anticipated it would create resistance to leaving for the NFL. Most college players dream of reaching the league. They choose schools based on which program gives them the best shot at going pro.
This isn’t about players getting comfortable with routine, meals, and housing like inmates in the traditional sense. It’s about money and future opportunities.
For decades, everyone understood the best college players would end up with the worst NFL teams through the draft. Players accepted this for two reasons: it fulfilled a lifelong dream and NFL money would change their lives and their families’ lives forever.
NIL flipped that dynamic completely.
The best college players now earn the most money. Arch Manning ($7M), Jeremiah Smith ($4M), LaNorris Sellers ($4M), DJ Lagway ($4M), Darian Mensah ($3M at Duke, $6M with Miami).
The NFL actually fixed their rookie pay problem years ago. In 2011, they moved to slotted rookie salaries. Before that, each No. 1 pick earned 5-10% more than the previous year’s top selection.
Sam Bradford signed a six-year, $78M contract in 2010. He had more guaranteed money than Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, and Cam Newton combined at that point. His per-season average exceeded salaries of Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, and Matthew Stafford.
That’s no longer the case today. The best college players can earn at or above current NFL rookie salaries. Only the top 5 draft picks still out-earn elite college players.
Lawsuits are college football’s next major challenge
Nearly five years into the NIL era, legal challenges are already mounting. The gap between NFL rookie money and college football earnings has shrunk dramatically.
Players who don’t like their draft projection or potential landing spots don’t have to leave anymore. The money is good enough that top prospects feel no rush to turn pro.
Consider Arch Manning’s situation. He has two years of eligibility remaining but chose not to declare for the 2026 NFL Draft. The decision was primarily developmental. In 2026, Manning will earn as much as the No. 7 overall pick or better.
The new problem involves players who want to stay in college but face NCAA eligibility limits.
Three players from the 2025 season have sued the NCAA to extend their college careers. Diego Pavia challenged how junior college years count against Division I eligibility in 2024. Joey Aguilar is in final stages of seeking an eighth year of eligibility.
Trinidad Chambliss won his lawsuit last week and will play for Ole Miss in 2026.
This isn’t a future problem – it’s happening now. Players not expected to go in the top 5-10 picks may increasingly turn to lawsuits as their next option.
Regardless of the eventual solution, player lawsuits represent the next major hurdle. The current system can’t survive when rules and policies get overturned by frequent legal challenges.
The alternative could be players suing for eighth or ninth years of eligibility when the expectation was four or five seasons. It’s a good situation for players, but legal precedent needs to exist before lawsuits become the norm.
