The Virginia Tech Hokies hired James Franklin last week, filling one of twelve head coaching vacancies that have opened for 2025.
The sheer number of available positions has exposed something troubling. Many programs are operating with an inflated sense of their own desirability in today’s college football landscape.
This isn’t new. College football has always been different from professional sports in America. The structure varies wildly between conferences and divisions. More importantly, programs view themselves through rose-colored glasses.
But the current coaching carousel has revealed that home team bias is spinning out of control.
The Coaching Candidate Shortage
LSU, Penn State, Florida, Auburn, Stanford, UCLA, Arkansas, Oregon State, UAB and Colorado State are all searching for new leadership. That’s eleven jobs chasing roughly the same four candidates.
Lane Kiffin appears to be the prize catch if he’ll leave Ole Miss. Eli Drinkwitz from Missouri and Jon Sumrall from Tulane are getting mentioned everywhere. Marcus Freeman keeps coming up despite showing no interest in leaving Notre Dame.
Four names. Eleven jobs.
The math doesn’t work, but each program seems convinced they’ll land their top choice. This mentality existed long before NIL or the transfer portal changed everything.
The BCS era likely cemented this thinking. Programs developed an inflated sense of self-worth based on past success rather than current reality.
Tier Confusion
In an objective analysis, LSU, Florida and Auburn probably represent the top tier among available jobs. Even that assessment relies heavily on historical reputation rather than current advantages.
The David versus Goliath dynamic has always existed in college football. Nobody expects Colorado State to compete with Georgia on equal footing. The UAB job clearly doesn’t match up with Florida’s opening.
Traditional metrics like winning history, donor bases and recruiting rankings have shaped these perceptions for decades.
But listening to local media and university officials discuss their searches reveals a disconnect. Everyone believes they’re operating in the top tier.
LSU and Notre Dame occupy a different level than Penn State and Auburn. Those programs sit above UAB and Oregon State. Yet officials from all these schools seem to think they’re competing for the same candidates on equal terms.
Money Changes Everything
The current landscape will eventually correct this thinking. Winning history and reputation no longer serve as college football’s primary currency.
Money is the new currency.
Programs that can generate and grow operating budgets will dominate recruiting. They’ll win coaching searches. They’ll reach the playoff consistently.
NIL has fundamentally altered the game. Players and coaches care less about childhood allegiances or NFL alumni. They’re following the money trail.
Ohio State, Alabama and Georgia will likely maintain their positions at the top. Not because of tradition, but because they generate massive revenue streams that won’t disappear in the NIL era.
The Matt Rhule situation at Nebraska illustrates this perfectly. For several days, discussions treated Penn State as barely an upgrade from Nebraska. Some suggested Penn State wasn’t significantly more desirable than Florida or LSU.
That’s delusional thinking.
Reality Will Intervene
Several programs are headed for frustration over the next few years. If Kiffin, Drinkwitz and Sumrall all stay put, coaching searches will devolve into chaos.
Programs aiming for top-tier candidates as upgrades over their fired coaches will learn that not all Power 4 jobs are created equal.
The days of recruits automatically gravitating toward the same three programs are ending. Ohio State, Alabama and Georgia will remain competitive, but they’ll face more programs operating at their level.
NIL will create parity among programs that get creative with revenue generation.
Programs with trophy cases who ignore NIL revenue will lose to historically lesser programs that prioritize modern realities.
College football entered a new era years ago. The home team bias displayed by most programs will get corrected naturally based on how they approach recruiting and winning.
Programs that lean on history while refusing to compete in the NIL landscape will fall behind.
The sooner they learn this lesson, the better.
