The NFL Draft stands as the biggest draft event in professional sports. The league’s popularity drives much of this attention. The NFL has also mastered marketing the draft as must-see television.
Brett Veach, Kansas City’s general manager, told ESPN on April 16 that he expects “a lot of trades” in the first round.
That prediction might be more wishful thinking than reality. This year’s draft presents unique challenges for teams looking to make deals.
The wheeling and dealing creates drama that fans love. Fantasy football owners especially enjoy the strategy aspect. It gives regular fans a chance to think like a general manager.
Draft picks work like currency in the NFL. Jimmy Johnson and Mike McCoy created the famous “Draft trade chart” in 1991 while with Dallas. The chart assigns point values to each pick.
The system is straightforward. The No. 1 pick carries 3,000 points. The 15th pick has 1,050 points. A team trading up needs to bridge that 1,950-point gap with additional picks.
NFL executives have largely abandoned Johnson’s chart in recent years. They make offers based on what they’re willing to pay, not mathematical formulas. But perceived value still matters.
Moving up usually requires including future first or second-round picks. Last year Jacksonville traded up from No. 5 to No. 2. They gave up their fifth overall pick, the 36th pick, the 126th pick and their 2026 first-rounder.
That 2026 pick became the 24th overall selection in this year’s draft.
2027 looks too good to trade away
The biggest obstacle to draft-day trades this year isn’t the compensation required. It’s what’s coming in 2027.
Teams typically trade future picks when they really want a player this year. That logic flips in 2026.
This year’s quarterback class is weak beyond Fernando Mendoza. The offensive line talent is solid but lacks elite left tackles. No receiver compares to recent stars like Ja’Marr Chase or Justin Jefferson.
The 2027 quarterback class could include ten franchise prospects. Julian Sayin, Dante Moore, Arch Manning, CJ Carr, Jayden Maiava, LaNorris Sellers, Sam Leavitt, DJ Lagway, Dylan Raiola and Darian Mensah all project as potential first-round picks.
Left tackle prospects should be much stronger next year. Running backs will likely have five players drafted in the top 50 picks. Edge rushers represent another premium position that should be better in 2027.
Wide receivers might offer the most dramatic difference.
Cam Coleman, Ryan Williams, RJ Moore, Mario Craver and Ryan Wingo headline a strong class. Then there’s Jeremiah Smith.
Smith isn’t just the best receiver prospect in 2027. He could be the greatest receiver prospect ever evaluated. Some scouts compare him favorably to Randy Moss and Ja’Marr Chase.
Trades require trade partners
Las Vegas won’t move off Mendoza at No. 1 unless something unexpected happens. But plenty of other players could generate trade interest.
Arvell Reese, Sonny Styles, Jeremiyah Love and David Bailey all carry first-round grades. Teams will consider moving up for these prospects. They just won’t sacrifice 2027 picks to do it.
The biggest rumor involves Dallas potentially trading both the 12th and 20th picks to Cleveland for the sixth selection.
Using Johnson’s old chart, picks 12 and 20 total 2,050 points. Cleveland’s sixth pick equals 1,600 points. Dallas would slightly overpay, but the deal could work without including future selections.
Jerry Jones and the Cowboys want a shot at Styles, Reese or Bailey if any of them slide. It would likely take both first-round picks to make the trade happen.
Very few players in this year’s first round are worth trading a 2027 pick. That reality makes big moves up the board unlikely.
The late teens and early twenties might see more activity. Moving up from the middle of the draft requires less compensation to complete deals.
