Pittsburgh’s 42-28 upset over No. 16 Georgia Tech didn’t just eliminate the Yellow Jackets from ACC title contention. It pushed the conference closer to a scenario where it could miss the College Football Playoff entirely.
The ACC’s margin for error has shrunk dramatically. Only four teams remain in championship contention: No. 19 Virginia, No. 13 Miami, Pittsburgh, and SMU.
Two will reach the ACC Championship Game on Dec. 6 in Charlotte.
The bigger concern isn’t who gets to Charlotte. It’s whether the College Football Playoff committee will rank the eventual champion high enough to earn an automatic bid.
Only Virginia and Miami are currently ranked. Meanwhile, Group of Five contenders Tulane (9-2) and James Madison (10-1) continue rising in the committee’s rankings. Both teams control their paths to conference titles.
A scenario where the ACC champion falls behind multiple Group of Five champions is no longer unrealistic.
Virginia remains in the strongest position. The Cavaliers clinch a spot in the title game with a win over Virginia Tech.
SMU can secure its place with a victory over Cal.
Pittsburgh needs to beat Miami and have either Virginia or SMU lose. The Panthers’ upset over Georgia Tech has rejuvenated their championship hopes.
Miami faces the most difficult path. The Hurricanes need to beat Pittsburgh, hope Virginia loses to Virginia Tech, and need Cal to upset SMU.
Virginia Tech and Cal have suddenly become the ACC’s unexpected kingmakers.
Even reaching Charlotte doesn’t guarantee anything. If Pittsburgh or SMU wins the ACC, there’s no assurance the playoff committee will rank either team ahead of Tulane or James Madison.
The new 12-team playoff includes five automatic spots for conference champions. An unranked ACC champion could end up fighting for one of the remaining at-large spots. That’s risky when the committee focuses on picking the “best” teams, not just the most deserving ones.
Other Saturday results complicated the picture further. Miami kept its championship hopes alive by beating Virginia Tech. SMU blew out Louisville by 32 points. Duke handed North Carolina another loss.
For ACC fans hoping to avoid disaster, the safest paths are limited. Virginia winning out and claiming the title. Miami pulling off a miracle run with extensive outside help. Or James Madison suffering an unexpected loss that reshapes the Group of Five landscape.
Tuesday night’s playoff rankings will be telling. Where SMU and Pittsburgh land relative to Group of Five contenders may determine whether the ACC has a seat at the table or watches the playoff from home.
