Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson stands as the most debated quarterback prospect heading into the 2026 NFL Draft.
Simpson threw for 3,567 yards, 28 touchdowns and five interceptions with the Crimson Tide this season. The conversation around his draft stock ranges from first-round pick to second-round selection.
This debate happens almost every year with one quarterback prospect.
A player gets hyped up or over-scrutinized through the NFL Scouting Combine. Simpson had a strong showing at this year’s combine. Then teams must decide if he’s worth a pick in the back half of the first round or early second round.
Tyler Shough filled that role in 2025. The 2024 NFL Draft didn’t have one of these polarizing quarterbacks.
Here’s how similar prospects have fared over the past decade:
2025: Tyler Shough, New Orleans Saints
Pick: Second round (No. 40)
Draft-day buzz: Cam Ward (No. 1) and Jaxson Dart (No. 25) went in the first round. Shough generated interest with his 6-foot-5, 219-pound frame. He spent seven years in college at Oregon, Texas Tech and Louisville. Injuries slowed him before he threw for 3,195 yards, 23 touchdowns and six interceptions at Louisville in 2024.
The Saints grabbed Shough in Round 2. The next quarterback wasn’t selected until pick No. 92.
Shedeur Sanders fell all the way to the fifth round at No. 144.
Did it work? Too early to tell. Shough went 5-4 as a starter with 2,384 yards, 10 touchdowns and six interceptions under first-year coach Kellen Moore. He posted a 91.3 passer rating but took 31 sacks. He enters 2026 as the projected starter.
2023: Will Levis, Tennessee Titans
Pick: Second round (No. 33)
Draft-day buzz: Levis impressed with his strong arm at the 2023 NFL Scouting Combine. He threw 43 touchdowns and 23 interceptions in two seasons at Kentucky. He became known for quirky habits like putting mayonnaise in coffee and eating banana peels.
Bryce Young (No. 1), C.J. Stroud (No. 2) and Anthony Richardson (No. 4) went in the first round.
Did it work? No. Levis went 5-16 as a starter in his first two seasons. He struggled with turnovers, throwing 16 interceptions and taking 69 sacks. Tennessee selected Cam Ward with the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.
Levis has one year left on his rookie contract with the Titans.
2022: Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh Steelers
Pick: First round (No. 20)
Draft-day buzz: The 2022 NFL Draft was thin at quarterback. Pickett was the only quarterback selected in the first round. He finished third in Heisman Trophy voting after throwing for 4,319 yards, 42 touchdowns and seven interceptions at Pitt in 2021.
Hand size became a talking point. Pickett’s hands measured 8½ inches at the NFL Combine.
The Steelers needed a successor to Ben Roethlisberger. Desmond Ridder was the next quarterback taken at No. 74 in the third round.
Did it work? No. Pickett lasted two seasons in Pittsburgh. He went 14-10 as a starter with 13 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. He was traded to Philadelphia in 2024 and won a Super Bowl ring as a backup.
He’s been traded to Cleveland and Las Vegas since. He signed with the Carolina Panthers this offseason.
That’s five teams in five seasons.
2021: Kyle Trask, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Pick: Second round (No. 64)
Draft-day buzz: Five quarterbacks went in the first round: Trevor Lawrence (No. 1), Zach Wilson (No. 2), Trey Lance (No. 3), Justin Fields (No. 11) and Mac Jones (No. 15). Trask emerged as a second-round pick after throwing for 4,283 yards, 43 touchdowns and eight interceptions at Florida in 2020.
Did it work? No. Jones became Tom Brady’s successor in New England. Trask got lost when Brady signed with Tampa Bay.
Trask played four seasons with the Buccaneers and appeared in seven games. He spent last season on Atlanta’s practice squad.
Jones is entering his second season with the 49ers as a backup.
2020: Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers
Pick: First round (No. 26)
Draft-day buzz: Joe Burrow (No. 1), Tua Tagovailoa (No. 5) and Justin Herbert (No. 6) went early. Love had 52 touchdowns and 23 interceptions in two seasons as Utah State’s starter. He slipped to the back half of the first round despite showcasing his arm talent at the NFL Scouting Combine.
The Packers drafted Love as Aaron Rodgers’ successor.
Did it work? Yes. Love spent two seasons behind Rodgers and has developed into a franchise quarterback. He’s 27-20-1 as a starter and has improved his passer rating each season.
Love has thrown for 11,535 yards, 83 touchdowns and 31 interceptions.
2019: Drew Lock, Denver Broncos
Pick: Second round (No. 42)
Draft-day buzz: This draft mirrors 2026’s quarterback class. Kyler Murray (No. 1) was the clear top pick. Daniel Jones (No. 6) and Dwayne Haskins (No. 15) followed. Lock showcased his arm talent at the NFL Scouting Combine after four seasons at Missouri.
Did it work? No. Lock went 8-13 as a starter in three seasons. He led the NFL with 15 interceptions in 2020.
Lock has found success as a backup quarterback through two stints in Seattle and one year with the Giants. He backed up Sam Darnold and won a Super Bowl with the Seahawks last season.
2018: Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
Pick: First round (No. 32)
Draft-day buzz: Jackson won the Heisman Trophy at Louisville in 2016 and finished third in 2017. He threw for 9,043 yards, rushed for 4,132 yards and totaled 119 touchdowns. Pre-draft talk suggested he should switch to wide receiver.
Baker Mayfield (No. 1), Sam Darnold (No. 3), Josh Allen (No. 7) and Josh Rosen (No. 10) went first. The Ravens traded with Philadelphia to grab Jackson with the final pick in the first round.
Did it work? Yes. This shouldn’t have been a debate. Jackson is a two-time NFL MVP and four-time Pro Bowl selection entering his ninth season. He’s thrown for 30-plus touchdowns twice and rushed for 1,000-plus yards twice.
2017: DeShone Kizer, Cleveland Browns
Pick: Second round (No. 52)
Draft-day buzz: Mitchell Trubisky (No. 2), Patrick Mahomes (No. 10) and Deshaun Watson (No. 12) went in the first round. The Browns used first-round picks on Myles Garrett (No. 1) and Jabrill Peppers (No. 25).
Kizer threw for 2,925 yards, 25 touchdowns and six interceptions at Notre Dame despite a 4-8 team record.
Did it work? No. Kizer went 0-15 as a starter that season. The Browns quickly pivoted to Mayfield with the No. 1 pick the following year. Watson is on the roster now.
Kizer played one season in Green Bay in 2018.
2016: Paxton Lynch, Denver Broncos
Pick: First round (No. 26)
Draft-day buzz: Peyton Manning retired after the 2015 season. The Broncos needed a franchise quarterback. Lynch impressed at Memphis as a junior with 3,776 passing yards, 28 touchdowns and four interceptions.
He also impressed at the NFL Scouting Combine. That convinced general manager John Elway to make the pick after Jared Goff (No. 1) and Carson Wentz (No. 2).
Did it work? No. Lynch never won the starting job. He played behind Trevor Siemian and Brock Osweiler most of those two years. Lynch made four career starts with 792 passing yards, four touchdowns and four interceptions.
Lynch has played in the CFL, USFL and XFL since. He tore his ACL this season while playing with the Colorado Spartans in the National Arena League.
