Fernando Mendoza has been locked in as the top quarterback in the 2026 NFL Draft for months. The Las Vegas Raiders hold the first overall pick, and there’s little doubt they’ll take him on April 23.
But draft conversations rarely stay that simple.
ESPN’s Dan Orlovsky recently sparked debate by suggesting Alabama’s Ty Simpson might be better than Mendoza. The take has generated buzz around Simpson and renewed questions about whether he belongs in the first round.
Simpson’s Draft Position
Simpson won’t earn a first-round grade from most evaluators. He’s not the strongest, fastest, or most accurate quarterback in this class. He doesn’t avoid turnovers better than his peers.
The Alabama quarterback’s main selling point is his ability to perform under pressure. Some see it as elite. Others aren’t convinced.
With just one season as a starter, Simpson faces tough historical odds.
However, it only takes one team to fall in love with him. The fifth-year option that comes with first-round picks makes reaching for quarterbacks easier to justify. A redshirt rookie season would make that option even more valuable.
ESPN’s draft team recently assessed Simpson’s first-round chances.
“25%,” Matt Miller said. “As the draft order stands right now, no team in Round 1 makes sense to me as a Simpson landing spot. No team in the top 10 that needs a quarterback is likely to reach for him, nor should they.”
Finding a fit becomes harder in the back half of Round 1. The Los Angeles Rams traded their second selection to Kansas City for Trent McDuffie.
The Pittsburgh Steelers (No. 21) and Cleveland Browns (No. 24, via Jacksonville) could use quarterbacks. Neither seems desperate to find their franchise guy right now.
ESPN suggested the Arizona Cardinals might trade up for Simpson. Jordan Reid (75%) and Field Yates (90%) were more optimistic about his first-round chances, pointing to that potential trade.
Needing a trade isn’t great news for Simpson’s stock.
His pro day didn’t change much. The accuracy numbers aren’t impressive. His downfield passing data looks rough. He’s relatively inexperienced and isn’t an elite athlete.
Those limitations hurt his chances for early success and reduce his margin for error as he develops.
The New York Jets could start Day 2 with the class’s second-best quarterback still available. Simpson hasn’t dropped as far as his College Football Playoff performance suggested he might, but this remains a one-quarterback draft in terms of safe franchise options.
Teams will likely reflect that reality on draft day.
Simpson should go in the top 40 selections. His ceiling feels closer to Jaxson Dart’s selection at No. 25 after a trade up than convincing QB-needy teams in the top 15 to reach for him.
