Ohio State safety Caleb Downs is the consensus No. 1 safety in the 2026 NFL Draft, according to multiple draft analysts.
However, there’s growing speculation about just how high he might be selected. Part of that uncertainty stems from how NFL teams value the safety position overall.
It’s rare for a safety to crack the top 10 picks.
But analysts and team officials speak about Downs as if he’s one of those rare safeties who could be the No. 1 player on a team’s draft board. The Ohio State defender was highly productive across his three collegiate seasons split between Alabama and Ohio State.
Downs fits the mold of a defensive quarterback. He has the potential to make a play on every snap.
He does have a tendency to take risks in run defense. But he makes enough plays there for that not to be a major concern for NFL scouts.
Downs also fits a new trend in the NFL – he’s “scheme agnostic,” meaning he can thrive in any defensive system.
Here’s where top draft analysts project Downs to land in the 2026 NFL Draft.
Caleb Downs NFL Draft projections
ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. – No. 5 New York Giants
The Giants have some options at safety, including newly signed Jason Pinnock and Ar’Darius Washington. But Downs is on another level, according to Kiper.
He’s a complete football player, and New York should have no hesitation in taking him here (highest draft slot for a safety since Eric Berry in 2010). Putting him alongside Jevon Holland on the back end would help not only in creating turnovers (the Giants had 15 last season, 25th in the league) but also shoring up a very bad run defense.
The Ringer’s Todd McShay – No. 10 Cincinnati Bengals
Downs falling to pick No. 10 would be a major win for a Bengals defense that’s lacking difference makers on all three levels.
McShay notes that Downs is special despite questions about his athletic profile and ball production.
He’s excellent at noticing formation tendencies, has a sixth sense for locating the ball, and attacks with good angles/leverage. His experience wearing multiple hats under three different coordinators in college (one at Alabama, two at Ohio State) will benefit him in a “multiple” league starved for defensive chess pieces.
NFL Network’s Rhett Lewis – No. 10 Cincinnati Bengals
Lewis acknowledges the debate over Downs’ measurables not being elite. But Downs simply is one of the best football players in this draft class.
The Bengals don’t overthink it and land a stalwart in the secondary, according to Lewis’s projection.
ESPN’s Peter Schrager – No. 12 Dallas Cowboys
Buckeyes defensive coordinator Matt Patricia provided some insider perspective to Schrager. Patricia told him on “The Schrager Hour” that Downs will be the smartest player on whichever team drafts him.
Downs should be a face of the franchise. The Cowboys need that on defense, even if safety isn’t valued the same as pass rusher or cornerback. Downs could team up with Jalen Thompson and Malik Hooker on the back end and help curtail the big plays that hurt Dallas last season (gave up 54 plays of 25-plus yards, most in the NFL). If he’s on the board, he would be a steal at No. 12.
Yahoo Sports’ Charles McDonald – No. 9 Kansas City Chiefs
McDonald believes Downs is arguably the best player in this year’s draft class. Getting him with the ninth pick would bolster a secondary that lost some talent.
He’s the exact kind of talent that would thrive in Steve Spagnuolo’s defense as playmaker wherever he’s asked to play. He can instantly be one of the best safeties in the league, a necessary weapon for a weaker Chiefs secondary to have as they retool.
CBS Sports’ Garrett Podell – No. 8 New Orleans Saints
Caleb Downs can line up anywhere: strong safety, nickel or even in sub-packages as a linebacker.
The New Orleans Saints’ secondary lost versatility with cornerback Alontae Taylor’s departure to the Tennessee Titans in free agency.
New defensive coordinator Brandon Staley pushes for even more of a chameleon in Downs. Staley coached All-Pro safety Derwin James with the Los Angeles Chargers, so New Orleans gives him James-lite in Downs.
The Athletic’s Dane Brugler Big Board ranking – No. 5 overall
Brugler has Downs ranked as the fifth-best prospect overall in his latest big board rankings.
Downs sees the field like it’s a chess board, according to Brugler’s scouting report.
Downs plays with an exceptional combination of intelligence, urgency and toughness, allowing him to be disruptive from anywhere on the field. His intangibles and on-field versatility will make him an impactful NFL starter early in his career.
The consensus among draft analysts places Downs somewhere between picks 5-12 in the first round. That would make him the highest-drafted safety since Eric Berry went fifth overall to Kansas City in 2010.
